Maldives Forecasts Wetter October in Northern and Central Atolls

Northern and central Maldives are expected to receive more rain than usual during October, while southern atolls are forecast to be drier than normal, the Maldives Meteorological Service has said.

Both daytime maximum and overnight minimum temperatures are expected to be above normal across the country, according to the service’s October outlook, issued on 1 October.

The forecast describes the expected pattern across the month. It does not specify that every island in a region will experience rain on the same days or that rainfall will be continuous.

The full climate outlook defines above-normal rainfall as more than 110 per cent of the average for the period. Below-normal rainfall is less than 90 per cent, while the range between 90 and 110 per cent is classified as normal.

The report combines local climate records with assessments of large-scale climate conditions and forecasts from international and regional modelling centres. Its inputs include multi-model forecasts and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts products.

October Falls Within the Wet Season

The forecast comes during the southwest monsoon, which normally extends from mid-May to November. The Meteorological Service’s climate overview identifies January to March as the northeast monsoon, or dry season, with April and December marking transitions between the two.

Rainfall varies considerably along the island chain. The service’s published long-term figures put average annual rainfall at approximately 2,218 millimetres in the south, 1,966 millimetres in central atolls and 1,779 millimetres in the north.

That geographical pattern is separate from this month’s forecast. A below-normal outlook for the south compares expected rainfall with the south’s usual conditions; it does not mean that southern islands have a lower annual rainfall average than northern islands.

The country remains warm and humid throughout the year, with temperatures moderated by the surrounding ocean. The service gives a usual temperature range of 25°C to 32°C and identifies March, April and the period before the southwest monsoon begins as the warmest part of the year.

The October outlook is a monthly climate forecast. The Meteorological Service publishes shorter-term weather forecasts and weather alerts separately, with their own validity periods and geographical coverage.