IMF Projects Maldives Growth of 1% as Government Withholds Its Review for a Second Year
The fund expects the current account deficit to triple to 18.6% of GDP this year and government borrowing to reach 11.9% of GDP. The staff report from its September review has not been released.
The International Monetary Fund projects that the Maldives economy will grow by 1.0% in 2026, down from 6.3% last year, according to the October 2026 World Economic Outlook database.
The IMF published the outlook on 13 October during the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok. Its forecasts for the Maldives also show the current account deficit widening to 18.6% of GDP and the general government deficit to 11.9% of GDP this year.
A day earlier, on 12 October, the IMF announced that its Executive Board had concluded the 2026 Article IV consultation with the Maldives on 14 September. The press release says “the authorities need more time to consider the publication of the staff report.”
Second Review Not Published
Article IV consultations are the IMF’s regular reviews of a member’s economy. IMF staff hold discussions with officials and prepare a report, which the Executive Board then discusses.
The 2026 press release contains no assessment of the economy and no policy recommendations. The 2025 consultation ended the same way. The Board concluded it on 26 March 2025, and the IMF’s Maldives page still says the authorities need more time to consider publishing that staff report.
The most recent Article IV staff report published for the Maldives dates from May 2024. The IMF’s press release at the time said that, without significant policy changes, the Maldives remained at high risk of external and overall debt distress.
The IMF’s Figures
The IMF expects growth to recover to 3.8% in 2027 and inflation to ease to 2.5% after rising to 4.0% this year. It puts the size of the economy at US$8.15 billion in 2026.
| Indicator | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 6.3% | 1.0% | 3.8% |
| Consumer price inflation | 3.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | −6.1% | −18.6% | −14.8% |
| General government net borrowing (% of GDP) | −3.6% | −11.9% | −7.6% |
| General government gross debt (% of GDP) | 129.4% | 130.7% | 130.3% |
The IMF projects general government gross debt to stay between 130% and 131% of GDP each year to 2031, the last year of its forecasts.
Other Forecasts
The IMF’s deficit forecast is higher than those of Moody’s and the Finance Ministry. Moody’s Ratings, which upgraded the Maldives to Caa1 on 8 October, expects a deficit of 8.0–8.5% of GDP in 2026. The Finance Ministry’s budget page puts the 2026 budget deficit at MVR8.8 billion, or 7.1% of GDP. Both Moody’s and the IMF put the 2025 deficit at 3.6% of GDP.
The ministry said in its statement on the Moody’s upgrade that public and publicly guaranteed debt fell to 122.6% of GDP at the end of July, from 129.2% at the end of 2025. That measure differs from the general government gross debt in the IMF’s forecasts.
Government spending on subsidies had passed its full-year budget by 48% as of 8 October, according to the Finance Ministry’s weekly fiscal data.
Tourist arrivals for 2026 stood at 1,682,550 on 14 October, 3.4% lower than at the same point last year, according to the Tourism Ministry.
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